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University of Connecticut

An Analysis of the 2008 Pre-Election Primary Polls

American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)
Roper Center for Public Opinion Research

 

The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) appointed a committee to study the performance of the polls during the early months of the 2008 primary season. This volunteer committee comprised of experts in various aspects of polling guided the analysis and prepared the report: “An Evaluation of the Methodology of the 2008 Pre-Election Primary Polls.”

AAPOR and the Roper Center have teamed up to disclose this information to the research community.  The Roper Center has archived the datasets, documentation, and reports utilized in the committee’s analysis and is pleased to provide access to this information here.  In the coming days, as additional materials become available, this page will be updated. 

 

CALIFORNIA

Dataset Files

Study # Study Name  
USSURVEYUSA2008-13325 KABC-TV/KPIX-TV/KGTV-TV/KFSN-TV Poll # 13325: California Democratic and GOP Primary (United States)
Conducted by SurveyUSA, field dates: February 3-4, 2008, sample: Adult residents of California
Dataset avaliable through RoperExpress
USSRBI2008-4002 PPIC Poll # 2008-4002: Californians and their Government (United States)
Conducted by Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas, Inc., field dates: January 13-20, 2008, sample: Adult residents of California
Dataset avaliable through RoperExpress

 

Additional Documentation from Organizations Not Providing Dataset Files

CA ARG Response Rates

CA Datamar Report

CA Gallup Report

CA Mason-Dixon LV Definition

CA Mason-Dixon Report

CA Mason-Dixon Response Rates

CA Politico CNN LA Times Report

CA Rasmussen Questionnaire

CA Suffolk Methodology

CA Suffolk Report

CA Zogby MultiState Results

CA Zogby Questionnaire and Response Rates

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Dataset Files

Study # Study Name  
USAIPOGNS2008-04 Gallup News Service Poll # 2008-04: New Hampshire Primary Callback (United States)
Conducted by Gallup Organization, field dates: January 11-29, 2008, sample: Registered voters in New Hampshire callback
Dataset avaliable through RoperExpress
USUNH2008-01 CNN/WMUR/UNH Poll # 2008-01: 2008 New Hampshire Primary Poll (United States)
Conducted by University of New Hampshire Survey Center, field dates: January 5-6, 2008, sample: Likely Primary Voters in New Hampshire
Dataset avaliable through RoperExpress
USAIPOUSA2008-01 USA Today/Gallup Poll # 2008-01: New Hampshire Wave II--2008 Presidential Primary (United States)
Conducted by Gallup Organization, field dates: January 4-6, 2008, sample: Adult residents of New Hampshire
Dataset avaliable through RoperExpress
USODFOX2008-6944 Opinion Dynamics/Fox News Poll # 2008-6944: Survey of Likely New Hampshire Primary Voters (United States)
Conducted by Opinion Dynamics, field dates: January 4-6, 2008, sample: Likely Democratic Primary Voters in New Hampshire
Dataset avaliable through RoperExpress
USCBSNYT2007-11B CBS News/New York Times Poll # 2007-11B: New Hampshire/2008 Presidential Election (United States)
Conducted by CBS News and The New York Times, field dates: November 9-12, 2007, sample: Adult residents of New Hampshire
Dataset avaliable through RoperExpress
USMISC2008-NH Marist Poll # 2008-NH: New Hampshire Presidential Primary (United States)
Conducted by Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, field dates: January 5-6, 2008, sample: Registered voters and residents who are likely to register in time to vote in the New Hampshire
Dataset avaliable through RoperExpress

 

Additional Documentation from Organizations Not Providing Dataset Files

NH ARG New Hampshire Report

NH LA Times New Hampshire Report

NH Marist Final Full Report

NH Mason-Dixon New Hampshire Report

NH Rasmussen Methodology

NH Rasmussen Questionnaire

NH Research 2000 Questionnaire

NH Research 2000 Response Rates & Weighting

NH RKM Franklin Pierce Full Report

NH RKM Franklin Pierce Response Rate

NH Strategic Vision New Hampshire Report

NH Suffolk 2008 ReportExplanation

NH Suffolk Methodology

NH Suffolk Questionnaire Responses

NH Zogby Methodology

NH Zogby Questionnaire and Response Rates

IOWA

Additional Documentation from Organizations Not Providing Dataset Files

Iowa Financial Dynamics-Diageo Hotline Iowa Report

Iowa L.A. Times Iowa Report

Iowa PSRAI Newsweek Iowa Report

WISCONSIN

SOUTH CAROLINA

Dataset Files

 

Study # Study Name  
USSURVEYUSA2008-13267 WCSC-TV/WSPA-TV Poll # 2008-13267: South Carolina Democratic Primary (United States)
Conducted by SurveyUSA, field dates: January 23-24, 2008, sample: Adult residents of South Carolina
Dataset avaliable through RoperExpress

 

Additional Documentation from Organizations Not Providing Dataset Files

S Carolina ARG Response Rates

S Carolina Clemson Report

S Carolina Ebony Jet Report

S Carolina Mason-Dixon Dem Primary Report

S Carolina Mason-Dixon LV Definitions

S Carolina Mason-Dixon Repub Primary Report

S Carolina Mason-Dixon Response Rates

S Carolina Public Policy Polling Methodology

S Carolina Rasmussen Questionnaire

S Carolina Zogby Methodology

S Carolina Zogby Questionnaire and Response Rates

 

 

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